My 2012 Bowl Season Picks

I'm once again going on the record with my Bowl Picks for 2012.  What are your picks?

 

As the bowl season progresses I will update in bold the winner. Will I be better than 60% as in past years?

 

Dec 15 – Gildan New Mexico Bowl                           Arizona (W) over Nevada – Arizona is a class above Nevada

Dec 15 – Famous Idaho Potato Bowl                        Utah (W) over Toledo – Toledo’s porous defense will not be able to stop Utah’s aggressive offense.  

Dec 20 – San Diego Co Credit Union Poinsettia     BYU (W) over San Diego State – this is a toss-up

Dec 21 – Beef ‘O’ Brad’s Bowl                                   Ball State over Central Florida (W) – Many tend to see CF as the victor but I’ll go with Ball State’s spunky style as a surprise win in my mix. 

Dec 22 – R and L Carriers New Orleans                     La Lafayette (W) over East Carolina – the La Lafayette QB will have to have a strong game.

Dec 22 – Maaco Bowl Las Vegas                                 Washington over Boise State (W) – Boise State does well in bowl games, but they are not as strong as in past years. Washington’s defense will be the key. If Washington defense must not surrender more than 18 or Boise will win. 

Dec 24 – Sheraton Hawaii Bowl                                  SMU (W) over Fresno State

Dec 26 – Little Caesars Bowl                                        Central Michigan (W) over Western Kentucky – the game is in their backyard

Dec 27 – Military Bowl                                                  San Jose State (W) over BGU

Dec 27 – Belk Bowl                                                        Cincinnati (W) over Duke – Duke’s storybook season will not carry them over Cincinnati

Dec 27 – Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl         UCLA over Baylor (W) – UCLA will be out to correct their let down in losing to Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship.

Dec 28 – AdvoCare Bowl                                               UL-Monro over Ohio (W) 

Dec 28 – Russell Athletic Bowl                                    Rutgers over VA Tech (W) – I hope that this is a growing up game for VA Tech but I’m not confident that will take place.

Dec 28 – Meineke Car Care Bowl                              Texas Tech  (W) over Minnesota – Minnesota should not be in this game. Minnesota is only in this bowl because Ohio State and Penn State are not bowl eligible.

Dec 29 – Bell Helicopter Armed Forces                   Air Force over Rice (W) – Rice has overachieved this year and Air Force will be out to finish their year on a positive note rather than carry the baggage of losing four of its last five games.

Dec 29 – New Era Pinstripe                                          Syracuse (W) vs West Virginia– WV offense has been inconsistent, and its defense underperforms. WV defense will have its hands full. The Syracuse defense will be challenged but I'm giving the nod to Syracuse in a high scoring game.

Dec 29 – Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl                               Arizona St (W) over Navy – Arizona State is the stronger team. While Navy’s planning and discipline will serve them well, to win Navy's defense and offense will have to play far better than they did in the Army-Navy game. Navy does not have the power to win.

Dec 29 – Valero Alamo Bowl                                        Oregon State over Texas (W) – Texas has QB consistency issues, something that does not miraculously change in a bowl game. Oregon's running game will be a key factor. Oregon by 3.

Dec 29 – Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl                             Michigan State (W) over TCU – While TCU has been more consistent than Michigan State and they have a more diverse offense, I'm going with Michigan State as one of the few Big Ten wins.

Dec 31 – Franklin Am. Mortgage Music City             Vanderbilt (W) over NC State - Here we will see that SEC teams are much stronger than AC teams.

Dec 31 – Hyundia Sun Bowl                                          USC over Georgia Tech (W) – USC is too deep. GT’s offense will gain little traction and their defense will not be able to stop USC. Also GT has a history of underperforming in bowls. I can see USC winning by 17.

Dec 31 – AutoZone Liberty Bowl                                  Tulsa (W) over Iowa State – Iowa State will lose the rematch of their earlier game as Tulsa has matured over the season. I will still pull for Iowa State.

Dec 31 – Chick-Fil-A Bowl                                              LSU over Clemson (W) – LSU’s offensive depth and D Line will overmatch Clemson’s defense.

Jan 1 – Taxslayer Gator Bowl                                       Northwestern (W) over Mississippi State - This could be one of the few Big Ten games if it is close. Mississippi State while bigger I’ll give the nod to the pesky Northwestern.

Jan 1 – Heart of Dallas Bowl                                         Oklahoma State (W) over Purdue – With Ohio State and Penn State not eligible, this is one of those games where a Big Ten team is matched up against a far superior team. As Purdue is overmatched at nearly every position, OSU should win this by 14 or more.

Jan 1 – Capital One Bowl                                               Georgia (W) over Nebraska – Georgia is too strong and their pass game will challenge Nebraska’s secondary.

Jan 1 – Outback Bowl                                                     South Carolina (W) over Michigan – Michigan’s consistency this season was questionable. Steve Spurrier will have his team well prepped with a great game plan.   

Jan 1 – Rose Bowl                                                            Wisconsin over Stanford (W) – If the Wisconsin team from the Big Ten Championship shows up, they will win over Wisconsin. Wisconsin will be want to have a different result from their prior two trips to Pasadena.

Jan 1 – Discover Orange Bowl                                     Florida State (W) over Northern Illinois – Northern Illinois will put up a spirited valiant effort but by the second half FS’s strength will overwhelms them.

Jan 2 – Allstate Sugar Bowl                                           Florida over Louisville (W) – Florida’s high quality defense will stagger Louisville’s O Line and QB

 Jan 3 – Tostitos Fiesta Bowl                                         Oregon (W) over Kansas State – Oregon’s speed will be the deciding factor for an upset.

Jan 4 – ATT Cotton Bowl                                         Texas AM (W) over Oklahoma – Texas AandM has a BSC quality team, a team that with a few breaks could have put them in the top five in the polls whereas Oklahoma is not a top ten team.

Jan 5 – BBVA Compass Bowl                                        Ole Miss (W) over Pittsburg – Pittsburg will have issues handling Ole Miss’ speed.

Jan 6 – GoDaddy.com Bowl                                         Kent State over Arkansas State (W) – I see this as an upset.                

Jan 7 – BSC Championship Bowl                                 Alabama (W) -  though I will be pulling for Notre Dame, Bama has more balance and depth, and should win by at least 10.           

 
I ended up 23 and 12 this year.

Penn State Football and Joe Paterno

Yesterday, Penn State won its first game in almost 46 years without Joe Paterno as its coach. People in the know saw signs that this day would come either at the beginning of next season or the next. That it came mid-season after being fired is the shocker and the reason is heart-breaking.

The press has been all over the Sandusky sex story and Paterno’s illustrious career is forever tarnished. Questions regarding when he knew, what he did, why he did not do more will continue to be analyzed and debated. Those who are strong Paterno fans will continue minimize his culpability. On the other side, there will be those on the opposite size who will forever consider Paterno guilty of a tremendous crime and held just short of being the actual perpetrator of the sex acts. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle.

One thing that concerns me somewhat is that Paterno’s actions are being judged by 2011 expectations and standards, not by the American understanding and standards of the mid 1990s. While most of the existing laws regarding reporting of suspicions were already in place when Paterno was informed about Sundusky showering with young boys, what had not been fleshed out in the public’s mind was what is “reasonable” suspicion and how aggressive one should be on reporting that suspicion. In the intervening years “reasonable” has become defined more broadly and clearly so as to include that which was reported to Paterno. Only in the last five to ten years have background checks, working with children and reporting processes come into place at the street level.

Today, any suspicion or concerns must be reported and when reported it is expected that authorities will conduct a complete investigation. Today, it is expected that reporting something generally to one’s superior and walking away is not acceptable conduct. If one’s superior does not contact the authorities, then the reporter is responsible for taking such a step. Clearly Paterno did not meet these standards and he should have done more. Back then, such action were being done, but the expectation to do so was not at today’s level.

Throughout his career Paterno has preached doing the right thing in all aspects of one’s life even when it is most difficult and could cost you dearly. Paterno has noted he should have done more, and that statement may be his lasting epitaph. Child abuse is very significant, and must be taken seriously. We must not dismiss accusations lightly and when work related they must be reported not only to our supervisors but also to the authorities. Regardless of the laws and the understanding of the laws a decade or more ago, aggressive reporting has always been the right thing to do. In that regard Paterno did not measure up to what he drilled into his teams. With the score tied in the dying seconds of the game, Paterno fumbled the ball on the 1 yrd line with a poor handoff.

It would have been nice if Paterno had recognized the significance of his inaction and announced his immediate retirement, but he did not do so possibly because he thought he could ride out the storm or that not doing more to protect the children was not a major misstep. I commend Penn State’s Board of Trustees for dismissing Paterno. It needed to happen.

Paterno’s firing also sends a strong message, that no person regardless of his/her accomplishments, reputation or accumulated power is immune from being dismissed for a single egregious action. This is a good signal to send and reinforces a good message, that one egregious action outweighs all one’s accomplishments and can bring forth one’s dismissal.

Paterno no longer at the head of the Penn State football program also signals the end of an era, the coach for life. Very few coaches at the top tier schools in the NCAA have been in their positions for more than twenty years. I may need to be corrected on this but I think the new Dean of top tier coaches are basketball’s Jim Boeheim at Syracuse with 36 years and in football Frank Beamer at Virginia Tech with 25 years…neither of whom has anyone close to that number of years as coaches. Today the pressure to win each year is powerful. Alumni and fans will accept one or two bad years if you have been consistently at the top, but having three, people will start to call for your dismissal. Hence, head coaches with twenty or more years at the same school which is the past was not that uncommon will become increasingly rare.

Are shorter tenures a good thing? I’m not sure as it signals that the almighty dollar and winning are king principals that stand well above graduation rates, character building and players not running afoul of laws and NCAA regulations. I fear that we will all be poorer in the end with the win at all cost measure.

Bowl Challenge - My Choices

The other day I posted a blog challenge....to pick as many as possible 20 bowl winners. While all five BSC games must be in the mix, the other 15 can be selected from any of the remaining 29 bowl games. My 20 selections are in red. For a few I have provided some rationale.

My pics are in red...when the game is over the winner will be enlarged and in bold.

BCS Five

BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2...... Alabama vs. Texas

Rose Bowl (1st).... Oregon vs. Ohio State

Allstate Sugar (1st)...... Florida vs. Cincinnati
I would love to see Jeff Quinn, Cincy’s interim coach and his charges defeat Florida, but I cannot see the Bearcat defense handling the Florida offense, particularly when they are out to show that their lost to Alabama was a fluke. I hope Quinn does a strong enough job to earn the head coach position.

Tostitos Fiesta (4th)..... TCU vs. Boise State

FedEx Orange (5th) .....Georgia Tech vs. Iowa
My heart hopes for Iowa but my realist side says “get a life.” Though Stanzi is back, he will be rusty after being out for the last three games. GT’s triple option offense will challenge and overwhelm Iowa’s defense. After LSU trouncing GT last year, GT will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Ferentz will have Iowa prepared and they will be gritty, but they lack the depth on both sides of the ball to handle a top tier team like GT.


My Other 15 Selections

St. Petersburg (19th)..... UCF vs. Rutgers
Meineke Car Care (26th)..... Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina
Emerald (26th)...... USC vs Boston College
This is the under achievers versus the over achievers. USC’s pride is on the line. I expect a hungry and focused USC to win by at least 14.

AdvoCare Independence (28th)..... Texas A&M vs. Georgia
Champs Sports (29th)..... Miami (FL) vs. Wisconsin
Pacific Life Holiday (30th) ......Nebraska vs. Arizona
I do not think Nebraska has another game in them like they had against Texas. Arizona’s offense should score at least 17 points. I do not think Nebraska’s poor offense should score more than 13 pts.

Insight (31st)..... Iowa State vs. Minnesota
Chick-fil-A (31st)..... Tennessee vs. Virginia Tech

Outback (1st) ..... Northwestern vs. Auburn
Konica Gator (1st) ..... Florida State vs West Virginia
On paper WV should win and will because FSU’s defense is too anemic to stop the running of Divine and the scrambling QB Brown who has an arm that will pick FSU’s secondary apart. Though FSU will be motivated to give Bowden his last victory, and Bowden will have a good game plan his defense will not be strong enough to handle the Brown-Divine attack.

Capital One (1st) .... Penn State vs. LSU
My head says go with Penn, but I am selecting LSU. LSU could carry the day if the right LSU team shows up. A focused LSU defense should handle Penn’s offence, but the LSU D-line will need to keep pressure on Clark or Clark will have a field day with the passing game. Jefferson will need to have a great game like last year’s Chick-fil-A Bowl in order to compensate for an anemic run game that is missing the injured Scott.

Valero Alamo (2nd) ...... Texas Tech vs. Michigan State
Mich State does not have the horses to match Texas Tech and Mich. State coaching has made questionable calls throughout the season. I will still be cheering for Michigan State to upset Texas Tech.

PapaJohns.com (2nd) ..... Connecticut vs. South Carolina
SC is a well coached team and while UConn has done very well and is building a solid program, its offense will not have a tough go against SC and SC’s inconsistent offense which started to mature late in the season should have enough success to win if they can avoid turnovers and the untimely bad penalties

AutoZone Liberty (2nd) ..... Arkansas vs East Carolina State
Ark defense is too porous – ECS has handled high powered offenses like Ark and has a solid offense too. Also Chip Holz is a creative motivational coach who is on the rise…his team will be ready and disciplined.

International (2nd) ...... South Florida vs. Northern Illinois
Nor Ill almost took down to Big Ten teams and they are stronger than they first appear. SF started well but stumbled in the last third of the season. If SF is to win, they have to stop NI’s strong running game and again have a solid offensive game that they showed against Florida State.


Others – italic print are teams for whom I am cheering and believe will win:

Brut Sun (31st) ..... Oklahoma vs. Stanford
AT&T Cotton (2nd) .... Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi State
New Mexico .... Wyoming vs. Fresno State
Gaylord Music City .... Clemson vs Kentucky
Sheraton Hawaii ..... Southern Methodist vs. Nevada
Little Caesars Bowl .... Ohio vs. Marshall
Texas .... Navy vs. Missouri
Roady's Humanitarian ..... Idaho vs. Bowling Green

Football Bowl Challenge

This is a challenge that for the most part is primarily for Josh, Evie and myself…and possibly for Christian too…as we tend to follow US college football more intentionally than others in the family. The challenge is to go on the record as to the projected winner of 20 of the 34 bowls.

By the end of December 17, about 36 hours before the first bowl being played, select 20 out of the 34 bowls. While in the mix must be the 5 BSC bowls, it is left to the individual to choose which 15 of the remaining 29 bowls he or she thinks will be the winner. Feel free to explain your choice. Let’s see who is able to project the most winners and have bragging rights.

I plan to make my selections by Monday morning.

College Bowl Season Cometh

This weekend the bowl forecasting will start to become clearer. We already know that Ohio State is in the Rose Bowl and their opponent will be the winner of Saturday’s Oregon/Oregon State game. After this weekend, unless Florida or Alabama is defeated, the championship game will contain a SEC team, Florida or Alabama, going against a team from Texas…more likely to be Texas rather than TCU. Whoever looses between Florida and Alabama will get an at large bid to a BCS game…likely the Sugar Bowl.

Rightly so TCU will earn one of the three remaining at large bids…likely the Orange or Fiesta. Boise State deserves one of the at large bids too…likely to be the Fiesta or the Orange. Boise will likely play the last at large team, which could well be either hurting Iowa or Penn State. Without Stanzi at QB, Iowa will have difficulty beating whoever they play in the Fiesta Bowl. As a Hawkeye fan I am conflicted over Iowa going to the BCS when their starting QB is out of the rest of the season. With Stanzi being hurt I suspect that Penn State will receive the last at large bid leaving the Hawkeyes going to the Capital One Bowl against Mississippi or long shot LSU.

LSU would have to have a convincing win over Arkansas and Mississippi loose to hapless Mississippi State. LSU’s poor clock management has likely moved them down to the Cotton Bowl, or worse, the Gaylor Music City Bowl.

I would have loved to see LSU and Iowa in the Outback, but alas it will not happen this year. By the way Josh asked his mother if LSU and Iowa played against one another, then for whom would she cheer. Her wise and simple response is precious, “I will cheer for the LSU band to play and march well at half-time.”

LSU Football Facility

American college sports is a serious matter, particularly football and basketball at major colleges. Following is a Youtube clip of a tour of LSU’s football facility.

College Football Recruiting

As the college football regular season comes to an end the heart of the college recruitment season commences. Schools are restricted to a set of defined weeks to visit potential recruits in their homes and they can only make official visits to their campus for a few weeks in the December and to the January to March period. All expenses related to official visits are paid by the colleges and are limited in the number of days. Unofficial visits can be made but all expenses are the family’s and their contact with coaching staff is more restricted. The more highly recruited players tend to make their official visits during their junior year.

Recruits must take into a host of factors and not get caught up in all the glitz and the flattering puff up statements made various coaches. The case of Robert Marve illustrates why a student must think carefully about all the factors, particularly if one is being recruited by the major programs. The high school athletes often will make verbal commitments a year or more prior to the signing period. The national signing period for football starts on February 4 2009.

Once a recruit commits to a college in writing, the college is committed to providing the student-athlete the promised scholarship. As a student cannot readily transfer to another university, woe to the player who comes in with expectations that are not meet. What most fans do not know is that NCAA rules make it difficult for students to transfer to another program.

Transferring to a Div II and Div III program is not normally an issue but going to another Div I program normally requires that a student not play the year immediately following his/her transfer. Further the NCAA allows their coach to prohibit the student-athlete from playing for specific colleges. Most coaches put schools in the same conference on the restricted list.

Robert Marve a player with the University of Miami Hurricanes was expecting not to be able to play for another ACC team but he has discovered that the list can be much longer than the ACC. His coach at Miami, Randy Shannon has taken the NCAA’s rule beyond its traditional list and has prohibited his player from playing for a total of 27 schools, all ACC schools, all SEC schools and all Florida schools, Marve’s home state. Shannon’s anger and list is beyond the pale. For his players, his message of intimidation is clear, if you dare to leave the program I will bury you.

Hopefully high school student athletes and their families being recruited by Shannon will give serious pause by Shannon’s list as it indicates the character of the man who coaches Miami Hurricanes. A college coach is a faculty member, a teacher who should not only be teaching the sports skills but life and character skills. A coach who puts winning and intimidation of players above the student speaks is not the life and character issues that I believe should be taught to our college students. Shannon’s action suggests that his players are athletes first and students second, and winning comes above everything else.

College players are students first, athletes second. Let us never forget it! Lets not forget that the character of a coach we see on the television may not be the character.

Bowling Season

College football bowl season will soon upon us. Once the BCS selections take place Sunday, the non-BCS bowls will quickly start picking their teams. Most bowls have agreements with particular conferences to select a bowl eligible team from their conference. The non-BCS bowls pick in a sequence…for example the Capital One by agreement gets the strongest Big Ten team that does not go to a BSC. Once the Capital One bowl makes its choice, the Outback Bowl makes it choice followed by the Alamo Bowl making its choice of the remaining Big Ten teams.

For the SEC (Southeast Conference) once the BSC selection is done, the next highest team goes to the Capital One Bowl. Once Capital One Bowl is settled, the Cotton makes its selection, followed by the Outback and then the Chick-fil-A bowl in Atlanta makes its choice from the remainder. Then the other SEC bowls follow as per their agreements with the SEC.

If Boston College beats Virginia Tech (Atlantic Coast Championship game) on Saturday, Virginia Tech will likely go to the Chick-fil-A bowl.

If Ohio State is selected to go into a BSC bowl, the Capital One will take Michigan State which will likely mean Iowa will go to the Outback bowl.

As for LSU, the opinions are that the Tigers will be going to the Chick-fil-A bowl. If so Josh will have a good number of friends on the other side of the field, several of whom will be in VA Tech’s marching band. That said, the Outback bowl could elect to invite LSU instead of South Carolina (which would then go to the Chick-fil-A).

If LSU goes against Iowa, as Evie has said to her son, at half-time she will be cheering for the LSU band to do well. But for the rest of the game she will be for Iowa. I will be conflicted…at the moment I would side with Iowa but then I may end up cheering for of LSU.