Why Has Obama Not Closed the Sale?

On the surface Obama should have won Pennsylvania. Most of the key factors that normally bring forth strong victories are going his way. Obama has a golden tongue and melodic voice with a natural cadence whereas Clinton is far from being a gifted orator. Since his Kennedyesque speeches coming out of Iowa the romantic images of Camelot carry stirred the imaginations and hearts of many.

Going into and following South Carolina by adopting the Martin Luther King speaking style and coupling with “Yes we can” he assumed the MLK mantle. Once he assumed the MLK mantle and with early victories heavy pressure was put on African-American politicians to publicly withdraw their support from Clinton and announce they are supporting Ohama. For an African-American to not support Obama risks wrath and alienation. Hence, Obama has the African-American community vote guaranteed.

Clinton is strongly detested by the religious right as evidenced by “ANYONE but Hilary” bumper stickers. Neither Hilary nor Bill Clinton are beloved by the far left and those with the deepest pockets in the Democrat party. Clintons are more middle of the road and not strong liberals which is why Obama has won strongly most of the caucuses attended by political activists.

Since South Carolina Obama has been heavily outspending Clinton. For every dollar Clinton has been spending Obama has been spending two, and sometimes three, dollars on television and radio ads. He has the resources to put far more paid boots on the ground in each State, generate more flyers and make more robo calls.

It is inevitable that Obama will be the Democrat nominee. The superdelegates who could make the difference are being neutralized through two strategies. The first is the strategy articulated following South Carolina by Ted Kennedy and John Kerry. The plan argues superdelgates should not vote contrary to how their states voted and to do otherwise would be undemocratic. Interestingly, Kennedy and Kerry will not be voting in keeping with their States are leaving others to champion that argument. These two Senators have also moved from having a high profile in the campaign into the background. The second plan is a variation off the first, is the argument that it would be immoral for the superdelgates to take the nomination away from Obama. The African-American community would view it as cheating a black man from what he rightly won. To help sustain that argument the Obama camp has to keep the Florida and Michigan delegates from being seated.

For the most part the momentum was with Obama prior to Ohio and Pennsylvania. With the superdelgates neutralized, there is little doubt that Obama will be the nominee. If he has the oratory, the looks, the message of change that stirs the heart, the dollars, the hard core of the party, then why has he ended the race?

The reason he has not put the race to an end is because the middle of the road Democrats and the Regan Democrats have doubts about Obama. While he has wrapped himself in the romantic images of Camelot, those who voted for JFK are not caught up in Obamamania. Having lived in the Kennedy era they not view the Kennedy administration and the Kennedy oratory in the same romantic terms as those who were born subsequent to 1970. Seniors appear to be viewing Obama’s promises and Obamamania with a greater level of skeptism.

While on many levels Obama is the Teflon man, when he is attacked, Obama has the tendency to go into the “woe is me” mood. A segment of Democratic voters are not convinced that he is able to stand the heat. If Democrats have doubts during a gentle internal campaign, those doubts will be magnified during the hard hitting national campaign when voters start to weigh strength and ability to lead on national and international issues. Coupled with strength will be issues about lack of experience. As the nominee Obama is going to have to demonstrate capability to attack, hit hard and steady. If his “woe is me” side comes out, he will find himself staggering.

Another issue is a quiet concern that Obama could be another Jimmy Carter. Carter was a likable man with a wonderful platform presence who swept into office with a mandate to change Washington. Significant change did not happen. In the face of major issues Carter equivocated and then became overly fixated upon an issue. The “woe is us” side of Carter created a national lethargy.

For the mainstream and right wing of the Democrat party Obama’s voting record is also an issue. Both conservative and liberal voting tracking organizations have rated him as having one of the most liberal voting records. This could become a significant issue in the national election as McCain has a more middle of the road record.

Though union leadership moved in February to get behind Obama, the rank and file of the membership has bolted. The blue-collar workers and middle management white-collar workers are the Regan Democrats. These swing voters are showing that they are not yet convinced that Obama is presidential material. Some talking heads speak of these voters being more racially motivated. About 10% of such voters may not be ready to vote for an African-American, but in the overall scheme of things this 10% are more than off-set by the increased number of African-American voters who are coming out to vote for Obama. Further, the bulk of those who say they would not vote for Obama because of his race tend to members of the NRA and religious right which heavily vote Republican.

Though some Democrats started calling seven weeks ago for Clinton to surrender and though the call has become much stronger, a premature withdrawl could harm Obama in the long run. The longer she stays in the race Obama will be able to shore up his shortcomings.

Though this election should be a cake walk for the Democrat nominee, particularly given McCain’s ongoing support of Iraq, such an assumption is dangerous. As demonstrated by Obama's inability to defeat Clinton when he has so many strong elements going for him, he has significant flaws that need to be addressed least he loose the national election.