Reflection on 2008 Presidential Race

Two posts in one day...what can I say...my goal is to hit or surpass the goal announced in the challenge to the family. Now as as to the election.

As I type, throughout the east voting is concluding on the agonizingly long 2008 American presidential campaign. If the election goes along the lines of the polls it will not be close as far as the Electoral College is concerned. Obama should have about a 70 to 110 spread between over McCain.

About a year ago, the election started to impact our direct mail strategies. Earlier in the year our division was looking at implementing a donor call system that it has done in the past. Though Virginia has been solidly Republican for decades I argued then that we should not do so. The early signs indicated that Virginia could be a battle ground. Over the last four presidential cycles the popular vote spread between the two parties has narrowed significantly.

The military vote was not a solid as it has been in the past years for the Republicans. Add to those two factors that Obama was energizing the younger voters at a level unseen since Kennedy in 1960 and you have a fertile ground for a battle.

For the first time in decades Virginia has its second consecutive Democratic Governor and at least one Democrat Senator. With the second Senate seat being vacated by a retiring Republican, it seemed to stand to reason that the senate race was going to be hotly contested by the Democrats.

With a hotly contested presidential and senatorial race the state would be flooded by robo calls between mid September and the election. Not only would candidates be making calls, but so would various PACs from right to life to woman’s rights groups, from the National Rifle Association to groups opposed to the United Nations. The last thing The Salvation Army needed to do was to make calls during the same period and be caught up in the backlash.

It appears that former Democrat Governor Warner will soundly defeat his Republican predecessor Governor Gilmore. The early returns appear that Obama will take the Commonwealth and its 13 electoral votes by seven to nine points, which would be a major shift.

With McCain going down to defeat, recriminations and figure pointing will commence within days. Some leaders of the Religious Right will cry the Republicans ignored their concerns by selecting the wrong candidate. Those leaders and their followers who nod in agreement need to be reminded of two realities. The first is that the Religious Right is one voice, albeit a significant voice, in the Republican Party. The democratic process is grounded upon the civil discourse and of putting forth a cogent persuasive. If others have a more convincing message than the Religious Right, they need to accept the result. They should not bemoan that they did not win the day and do what James Dobson did, announce that he was picking up his ball and going home because he did not like the result (he later came back to the game when Palin was picked by McCain).

The second is that the Religious Right has lost credibility by wrapping themselves around George Bush. In the last election many evangelical leaders made it clear, as did Sarah Palin’s pastor did, that a good Christian could not vote for Bush’s opponent or any Democrat. As these preachers of righteousness remained silent on abuses within the Bush administration the Religious Right started to lose its moral ground and hearing. The middle of the road independents, particularly those under thirty, are giving far less attention to leaders of the Religious Right than in the past.

The McCain campaign continued to struggle to find a message that would hold traction and undergird the whole campaign. The first narrative was McCain the hero who does not back away from tough fights vs. those who lack courage. How he tried to cast Obama did not hold. Obama did not allow McCain’s bait to distract him. Instead Obama remained calmly focused on the message of change and his game plan.

Over the summer McCain’s message evolved to be the deal maker who puts country first versus Obama the nonpartisan pretender. McCain had a long history of brokering deals and working with Democrats in the Senate but the message did not hold. That message did not connect primarily because Obama again was being cast far from how he was being perceived. The Republican’s underlying dismissive view of Obama was apparent in their messages.

During and immediately following Obama’s trip to Europe the Republican message shifted to McCain the decisive leader versus Obama the rock star celebrity. That message died quietly when the electorate felt Obama had serious ideas that stood behind his popularity with the younger demographics whereas McCain still was not focused upon the serious issues facing the nation. McCain’s answer to rising gasoline prices was to drill more and diversify. When pressed as to flesh out his diversify message he remained vague and wanting. He answers to the rising foreclosure rates remained fuzzy. A vague energy plan and a fuzzy foreclosure plans did not match the McCain the decisive leader message.

Saying it was a reflection of his decisive leadership McCain selected Sarah Palin as his running mate. Immediately the unknown Palin became the rock star, a star who dwarfed McCain on the campaign trail. Coming out of the convention the new narrative was McCain/Palin, a team of mavericks standing against old style Washington politics. This message took hold for a while but soon lost traction. Though it lost traction the theme kept surfacing again and again through to the end of the campaign. The general public had difficulty seeing Obama as old style politics in light of his time in Washington and balanced thoughtful approach to issues.

In his effort to court the far right of the party McCain jettisoned a host of positions previously held. In changing his positions just to get the nomination, the maverick became a typical old style Washington politician. The message also lost traction when the public started to know about Palin and witnessed her in two disastrous interviews.

When the signs of the economic crisis become increasingly evident, McCain continued to claim that the fundamentals of the economy were sound. He and his financial advisor assured all would be well. McCain appeared shocked by the meltdown. Trying to portray himself as the decisive leader who could work with both parties to resolve a problem, he boldly announced the he was suspending his campaign and returning to Washington to solve the financial problem. That action backfired badly on three fronts.

It soon became evident that McCain was charging into the battle without understanding the nature of the battleground which was evident in several of his public pronouncements. Then people started to read and hear the stories that McCain sat silently in meetings without giving any suggestions. He was not being the reconciler or the decisive leader he claimed. Not only did he leave town without any plan in place but it appears that he emboldened those who were against doing anything. Hence, McCain became identified as being part of the problem.

Sarah Palin’s posturing herself as a down-home honest speaking hockey mom WalMart shopper was derailed by stories about $150,000 being spent on her wardrobe. It is one thing to have good looking clothing, but the cost of the outfits alarmed the middle of the road voter at a critical point in the race. Even when the press left the story, Palin revived it again by her comments on the campaign trail and by her Alaskan handlers false faulting Wallace.

In the closing weeks McCain turned to the traditional Republican message, the conservative fighter against the tax and spend liberal. Bush effectively used the same message against Gore in 2000. The message resonated with the base and independent voters who are right of center. It did find traction but it lost its punch when left of center voters recalled McCain’s past votes against Bush’s tax cuts undercut his message. The message lost some punch when amongst voters to recalled that Bush said the same yet is the President with the greatest deficit in the nation’s history whereas his “liberal Democrat” predecessor had a surplus.

That said, polls tightened in the last week as the Republicans unleashed an endless stream of attack ads that played upon fear. In the next hour time will tell if going to the well of fear will work once again. For the sake of future elections, their approach does not work.

On the whole, Obama has run a stronger campaign at all levels. His message has been consistent. His decisions have been thoughtful as against McCain’s rash selection of Palin and during the financial crisis charging off like mindless general into a war without knowing the nature of the battlefield. In his moving passionate speeches he has given the country a vision. We have seen a thoughtful passionate man. While campaigning is not the same as governing, running a thoughtful deliberate campaign does show potential leadership.

On another election issue, Kay Hagan is projected to defeat Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina (see the earlier 30 October post on this subject).

Republicans Know What Tuesday Holds

Regardless of the polls Republican talking heads speak of Republicans winning a host of Senate races and the presidential race on Tuesday. This morning Davis, McCain's campaign director affirmed on national television that McCain/Palin would win. They claim that the polls are biased to the Democrats and that their internal data gives a different picture.

Do the behaviors and decisions being made does not match the verbal statements? The evidence indicates that Davis and other Repubican apologists are not sharing true picture. For over a week Republicans have been in-fighting pointing blame for the poor results to various individuals. In the dying days of America's national election where the presidential and vice-presidential candidates travel indicates their own internal reading of the results. What they are saying in these last hours on the trail and the last minute ads speak volumes.

When Obama’s team increases commercial buys in Arizona, McCain’s home state, McCain is in trouble. When Obama spends his last four days focused upon states that voted for Bush in the last elections, that is an indication the Republicans are losing. Obama/Biden are not running around shoring up their base and ground they traditionally win. Besides visiting swing states like Ohio and Florida in the last five days, McCain and Palin are making campaign stops in Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina, three states that have been Republican strong holds. When the Republicans start pouring resources into Virginia with a week to go, a state that has not supported a Democrat presidential candidate since 1964, there is great concern. The same is happening in Indiana and North Carolina.

McCain's message has changed in these last days. He is asking for voters to vote for him by arguing that if he does now win the Democrats will control both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. That message is a sign that across the board the Republican party are headed for difficult and disappointing night. McCain’s argument is founded upon strong indications that after this election the Democrats will have a much stronger majority in the House and Senate.

Interestingly, the Republican National Committee is running ads using a similar message in an effort to support their Senate candidates. The RNC ads plead for voters to vote for their Senator since Democrats will be controlling both the White House and the House or Representatives.

In Organ the RNC’s ad says "Sending Jeff Merkley to the U.S. Senate could give one party a blank check … Especially in this economy, Oregon needs an independent voice in the U.S. Senate." Polls are indicating that Democrat challenger Merkley may defeat incumbent Senator Gordon Smith.

In North Carolina, Senator Elizabeth Dole is at such severe risk of losing to Kay Hagan that Dole has run some of the nastiest ads this year. The RNC has jumped in to help support Senator Dole with an ad, "Who's the Senate race really about? Hagan or Dole? Neither one. It's about liberals in Washington. They want complete control of the government … The left wants 60 votes in the Senate." Though the Republicans use the traditional “liberal” attack, the problem for Dole and the RNC is that politically Hagan is very much a middle of the road. Similar ads are being run by the RNC where incombent Senators are at risk.

While McCain is admitting that the Senate and House are lost, the RNC is admitting that the White House and House of Representatives are going to the Democrats. The "vote for me because my party is going down in flames" messages are very telling, particularly in a party that has historically valued party loyalty. When a party that puts a premium on loyalty starts to use these messages and openly finger point, its days of glory are coming to an end.

Far too many Republicans have held that they have the divine right to rule. This view is somewhat grounded in the religious right that assumes it has all the right answers, that one cannot be a Democrat and true Christian, and God’s will is for them to rule America. When Clinton won the White House the religious right was so angry and bitter because his election put into question their viewpoint on ruling.

The nation needs a well balanced Republican party, a party that is not controlled by the right wing. The over dominance of the right wing has not been good for the party or the country. Hopefully they will go through a much needed soul searching in the coming weeks and months that will drive them toward being much more toward the center. Hopefully they repeat what they did following Clinton's victory by moving further toward the extreme right.

Election Math

The national election is the United States is in its home stretch. In September polls have constantly shown Obama with a lead, a lead that continued to widen. No candidate or party has given a knock-out punch or faltered to the degree that victory is hopeless.

Over the upcoming twelve days the polls will narrow, which is what typically happens when the election is not going to a landslide. That said, there are signs of growing tension within the McCain campaign’s leadership. McCain messaging has continued to meander. Palin’s fitness to be President has increasingly come into question and today 55% of those surveyed feel she is not qualified to be Vice-President.

In the United States, the candidate entering the White House does not need to win the popular vote. Gore won the popular vote in 2000 but lost the race. The race is focused upon winning the Electoral College. Win a state, even by one vote, the candidates receives all that state’s electoral college votes.

I would note for family and friends north of the boarder that it is possible to win the White House by winning only eleven of the fifty States. The eleven have the largest electoral colleges and when combined gives a candidate 271 electoral votes, one greater than what is needed to win. The eleven states are:
California with 55 electoral votes
Texas with 35
New York with 31
Florida with 27
Illinois with 21
Pennsylvania with 21
Ohio with 20
Michigan with 17
North Carolina with 15
Georgia with 15
New Jersey 15

Losing three of the above states does not unduly harm a candidate if they are not all in the largest four. Losing one of the large four and two of the others can be easily off-set by strength from a range of smaller Electoral College states. But losing five or six of the eleven creates a great challenge for any candidate. Both parties are aware of the importance of these eleven and build their campaigns around winning as many any of the eleven as possible.

Before the campaign started the Democrats knew Texas is going Republican and conceded Texas. Texas is easily offset by Wisconsin, Minnesota, Washington and the District of Columbia.

Georgia too is likely to go Republican. Democrats balance off Georgia with Massachusetts and Vermont, both of which are strong Democrat states.

Though the fight for North Carolina is a tight, North Carolina too is likely to go Republican. Again its lost is not of great concern since the northeast strong holds of Connecticut, Rhode Island and New Hampshire compensate for not winning North Carolina. That said, the Democrats are pouring resources into North Carolina in an effort to drain Republican resources from other states as Republican success depends upon Republicans winning North Carolina.

Though the Republicans have conceded Illinois, New York and Michigan, they would be in great difficulty if they lose North Carolina. What is interesting is that recent polls indicate that Obama is within two or three points of winning North Carolina. If Obama wins North Carolina it is more than likely that Obama will be the overall victor.

A great deal of attention is being given by both parties to Ohio and Florida. In the last two presidential elections these states could easily have gone Democrat. For the Democrats losing either Ohio or Florida could be balanced off by a series of smaller states, but for either party to lose both creates an uphill battle, particularly for McCain.

Democrats losing Ohio is balanced off by winning Maryland, Maine and Iowa. Iowa which went Republican in 2004 gives Democrats more breathing space. Loosing Florida requires the Democrats to win Maine and Hawaii, which the Democrats have won in the last four election cycles, as well as several states that swing back and forth.

Losing Ohio and Florida means Oregon, Colorado and New Mexico become must wins for Obama. Both Florida and Ohio are close. Obama has a strong lead in Oregon and somewhat of a lead in Colorado and New Mexico.

For the first time since 1964 Virginia could be taken by the Democrats. Virginia is being hotly contested. If the Commonwealth of Virginia does vote for Obama and so does Oregon, Colorado and New Mexico, the Democrats will be in a strong position to win the White House, even without lost Ohio and Florida.

Given where Virginia is polling recently, significant campaign money is being poured into the state. Though the Commonwealth may well go Republican, Missouri too is receiving a great deal of attention from both parties.

For McCain to win the White House he must take Ohio, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia. He is going to lose Iowa and New Mexico. The lost of these two states means Maine and Pennsylvania become must wins for him. Hence, the Republicans are pouring resources in Pennsylvania in an effort to win there even though the polls indicate that McCain is behind in the state by six to nine points.

For any reader who is interested in playing around with various combinations, I would point them to http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htm

The race will tighten and the heavy focus will come down to six to eight states.

McCain/Pailin Victory Is a Frightening Thought

I victory by John McCain and Sarah Palin is a scary thought. The self-proclaimed maverick has long admitted that he shoots from the hip without little thought. McCain claims he tends to rely upon instinct, which for me translates to mean, he is governed by his emotion. His bent to tirades is renown on the Hill.

Palin, the proclaimed populous maverick governor, states she is a proud American who will help clean up America, set it on the right course and reform how politics are done in Washington. Yet, as governor of Alaska used her office for personal gain by charging back to the state nights she stays in her personal home rather than in the governor’s mansion. She talks about reforming politics in Washington yet as governor violated the ethical guidelines for public officials. What she states and her conduct has not matched her actions.

This election has exposed America’s ugly side, particularly the degree and nature of its bigotry.

The above is disconcerting but in of itself does not scare me. What scares me is that under the leadership of McCain and Palin the Republican party is drawing out its bigotry and its threads of intolerance. Day after day Palin talks about Obama being connected with a terrorist and that America really does not know him. McCain ads are run impugning Obama’s reputation. He addresses his opponent as “that man” and puts out advertisements that while talking about Wall Street corruption shows a picture of an African American businessman.

And then, McCain and Pailin are alarmed when some of their supporters at rallies cry out for Obama to be killed, call him godless, call him a terrorist who is out to destroy America, a Muslim and “an Arab”. McCain, mainly put the dots out there and when people draw the connections they act shocked. They have played with matches in a room filled with gas and act surprised that when a fire breaks out. Their alarm undermines their talk that they will govern thoughtfully.

Following the McCain lead, Elizabeth Dole, the Republican Senator in North Carolina who is in a very close race has run ads decrying her opponent Kay Hagan for visiting with a group of atheists. The advertisement is designed to inflame religious intolerance. The ad says, “In North Carolina, Kay Hagan says she shares our values. But, behind our backs she’s the guest of honor at a fundraiser hosted by the most vile, radical liberals in America.” The group is vile and radical because they are atheists. I have no idea what Hagan’s religious affiliation but it does not matter. A person should be able to meet with any citizens without incrimination or fear, but apparently Dole does not agree. By implication Dole is saying there are groups she will not meet with nor represent. Will she refuse to meet with and represent Hindus? About Muslims? Budhists? Agnostics? Gays? If she is willing to meet with all her constituents, then why the ad?

As mentioned a victory for McCain and Palin is a scary thought. A Republican victory will signal that the US is not as progressive on tolerance as the country wishes to believe and that it is acceptable behavior to draw it out. A McCain/Palin victory will mean that this country is not as religiously tolerant as its claims. It will mean that the country still is awash with bigotry, albeit more subtle and hidden than in the past.

Fortunately, and though things can change, current polls indicate they are not headed to the White House. I am an independent who has become convinced that the Republican party on the national level has lost its moral authority to govern.

Does Palin Lack the Moral Authority to be Vice President?

Shortly after the bi-partisan committee issued its report that noted Palin violated Alaska’s Ethical Act McCain issued a statement decrying the report as being an overreaching report that is making a tortured argument which is a result of as a partisan effort by the Obama and the Democrats to disgrace Palin. McCain’s statement is more applicable to his and Palin’s dismissive reaction.

McCain and Palin wants the country to believe that this report was a witch hunt over nothing as Palin did nothing wrong. Their goal is to have the country to believe that this is process was driven by Obama and his minions of political purposes. McCain and Palin want people to turn of their intellectual capacities and accept their claims uncritically for that is the only way that I can see accepting the McCain and Palin charge.

McCain and Palin want us to forget that the inquiry was a started as bi-partisan vote well before she became McCain’s running mate. They want us to ignore that Palin retracted her promise to cooperate until she became McCain’s running mate. They want us to ignore that the fourteen member committee was made up of four Democrats and ten Republicans. They want us to ignore that the vote was 12-0 for issuing of the report (two members abstained). The Republicans knew that report could impact the campaign but they still issued it. This speaks volumes for the Republicans on the committee and the Governor’s conduct should be viewed with askance.

Instead of recognizing what happened, and accepting responsibility, Palin and McCain are doing their version of Nixon. Nixon was not responsible for the planning or implementing of the Watergate break-in. He became swept up in not being forthright when wrongdoing was discovered.

On the whole, Palin has not committed a criminal act. She violated an ethical code and behaved in a manner that is not becoming of a Governor or Vice-President. Though it was an significant error of judgment, it is not necessarily a character flaw if she was forthright in accepting responsibility and confessing that she has not upheld the high standard. If she had accepted the responsibility for her actions, and those of her husband, the whole matter would not only blow over quickly but she would also demonstrate depth of character. A person of significant character would admit their error and actively seek to do a much better job. By accepting responsibility she would be living out in her own life “telling it as it is” that she made a mistake in trying to use her office for personal purposes.

Instead of “telling it as it is” she tells it as she wants it to be even if the evidence says otherwise. She is behaving like so many other politicians in Washington. She faults the press, the Democrats, Obama and Biden, and anyone else rather than admit that what she has done was wrong. Her response and defensiveness demonstrates lack of character. Her actions Palin indicates lack in depth of character. More importantly, the question now must be asked whether she has the moral authority to be Vice-President.

Unfortunately for McCain, his statement couples his credibility to hers. I now must ask myself whether he has the moral authority to be President. I am wondering more than ever if he has the balanced judgment to be President.