The other day my wife, Evie, asked why I’ve been saying for months that Trump will more than likely win the American Presidential election. Following are my reasons.
I will note for the reader that I am an Independent who will not be voting for the current Republican nominee. My reasons for not doing so will be saved for another posting.
Following are reasons why I am nearly certain that Trump will win:
1. As with the primary, Trump is running an aggressive image marketing campaign defining himself as a glamorous success man who has all the answers. That he is not as successful as he proclaims is not the issue, he is using the old Madison Avenue technique that it is about projecting an image and brand, with quality and content being secondary. As with his primary opponents, Hillary Clinton and her team running a standard political campaign which is not adequate in fighting a populist marketing campaign. An image marketing campaign, even one that lacks depth of policy content, will defeat a traditional formulaic political campaign.
2. As with the primaries, Trump will successfully rebrand his opponent in a negative light. He is building upon what the Republicans have been quietly doing for decades, attacking both Clintons both subtly and openly. For decades they have demonized her, creating a strong revulsion and fear towards both Clintons. Trump’s rebranding work builds off the instilled fear.
3. In a mass marketing, image projection is critical. Projecting charisma is a Trump asset. History is replete with examples, including several since in the 1900s, where nations and people followed to an electrifying person who give them simple shallow answers to complicated fears and issues. Clinton is not charismatic.
4. Trump is a highly skilled pitch man, promising and saying whatever needs to said to close the deal. That he has a history of over-promising and under-delivering is not an issue. He has the ability to sell the clunker as if it was the greatest thing.
5. While not representing the majority of Americans, Trump will continue to tap into the base nature of people, giving voice to their fears while assuring them that he is their savior and will make their lives much better. Any national or international mass shooting or terrorist event, or a poor economic report will be used to fuel fears. Though he will not be able to articulate any answers beyond the broad statements and platitudes, his statements and promises that he will have the best people work on the issue will be adequate. When people are in fear, people will believe in empty assurances when they are given with confidence.
6. Trump will win male blue collar workers by more than 18 pts. This group has tended to vote for Democrats but will not be supporting Clinton. Blue collar men have been more harmed by the international economy. Also, this demographic is the most reticent group to vote for a female for president. Trump’s appeal to the fears of this group will deliver him Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Also the similar segment, blue-collar retirees, will help deliver him Florida.
7. Clinton has a major problem with men, and the problem is so deep and broad that her advantage with women and minorities will be more than off-set by Trump’s advantage with men. Because of Hillary, the number of men who will come out in this election will be higher than normal. There is a sizable portion of the male American population who are not prepared to support any female for president (they will accept a female vice-president).
8. Clinton has a major personality issue and sexist stereotypes have an impact upon the election. In the business world, study after study demonstrate that when a woman says and does exactly what a man does, she is perceived more negatively than her male counterpart. She is viewed as cold, pushy and harsh. If she is quiet and reflective, she is viewed as being week in leadership qualities. The same holds true in American politics where major female leaders have been viewed negatively by the general public. The general population sees Clinton as lacking warmth and class. At best she is a mediocre campaigner. She is viewed as snarly, evasive and untruthful, and she has moments and does things that play into that image. While Trump is highly snarly when you cross him or he perceives a person to be a threat, people will overlook and forgive him. It is part of his maleness, image and charm. While Trump is far less truthful and forthcoming than Clinton, he is not viewed in that light. Due to his gender, when he does those same things he viewed as being a leader who projects personality, strength and charisma.
9. As Trump has not held elected office, there is no public policy record that he will have to defend from attack. Any old statements denied as occurring or explained away. A sizable portion of the electorate are very accepting of his lack of clarity. Also, decades of non-disclosure statements for every employ will limit insights into his corporate world processes and conduct.
10. And lastly, the IS factor. We should not be surprised by a significant terrorist attack or two taking place within the last eighteen days before the election. By fueling anger and the worse of our human natures, the attack(s) will be timed to be close enough to the elections that the emotions will still be raw, and thereby impacting the election. IS would love nothing more than to impact the election and against the incumbent president’s party (if a Republican was in office they would try to prevent a Republican from being the next president).