America's Religious Changes Impacting Elections

It is evident that the ethic profile of the United States is changing, but so is America’s religious profile.  In the 1950s church attendance across all denominations was strong, with three out of four Americans attending church services at least three times a year. In this same decade over 85% of Americans considered themselves to be “religious”. In the mid 60’s dramatic shift that lasted for a little over two decades commenced with the growth in the conservative Baptist and evangelical churches as people left mainline churches for conservative congregations.  

In August 2012 the Washington Post reported the number of Americans claiming to be “religious” had decreased from around 73% in 2005 to around 60%. That same article noted that atheists make up about 5% of the American public, up from around the 1% level of the late 80s.  

As noted in a past post, the evangelical church is in decline, a decline that will become starkly evident over the coming decade. Many evangelicals argue the decline is a result of a lack of religious fervor and conviction in their churches and society as a whole. They argue that the church and nation is decline because prayer has been taken out of the schools, gay marriage and rampant disregard for biblical teachings.

While lack of broad fervor may be a factor in the decline of the evangelical church, it is a minor factor. The two primary causes for the decline are entangled somewhat. First, the group that flooded into the evangelic churches between 1965 and 1985 as a reaction to social changes occurring in that era are aging rapidly. Their children and grandchildren are not attending evangelical churches at the same rate. While not the only cause, significant declines in attendance, particularly amongst those below the age of 30 follow on the heels of periods of strident political activity within the evangelical church.

My intent here is not to judge one way or the other the appropriateness of such action on a particular issue or set of issues. My intent is to note that there is a correlation between the evangelical church’s manifest fervor on particular issues and the younger generation remaining within or being attracted to the evangelical teachings. What is evident is that there was a cost to the evangelical churches the more they became politically engaged on a host of social, cultural and financial issues. It increasingly appears that their political activity has left those who came into adulthood since the early 1990s feeling that the evangelical church has no answers for them. While some of the younger generation are returning to mainline churches, for a more balanced approach, more often than not the younger generation are not looking to any organized faith for sucker and guidance.

Hence, the evangelical finds itself with an aging membership. In many congregations the largest age block are those over the age of 60. Attendance is slowly declining, and will become more rapid as their largest block of members start to enter nursing homes and pass away.     

This shift was evidenced in this past election, an election which on so many levels Romney should have won by a spread of at least 7. With this economy, if the values and the demographics of the late 80s and early 90s were in place Romney would have won easily. Then the evangelical church, the heart of the Republican base, was strong and the younger generation was still somewhat religiously connected.

November’s exit polls showed that those who claim to have faith of some manner but with no specific religious affiliation, called “nones” in the data, made up 12 percent of the electorate in 2012. This is up by 3 points from 2000 and double the 1980 level. Further, the number of people who say that they do not attend church or house of worship stood at 17 percent. The Republican base is shrinking.

 

That this level the “nones” make up a voting block as large as the Hispanic. These “none” broke for the Democrats by over 40%. If one adds into the mix the atheists, the voting block becomes more significant. The block will only grow.  America is becoming more pluralistic. Hopefully the Republicans can make the adjustment.  

Conservative Church and Divorce Rates

As a follow-up to yesterday’s post this deals with a response to troubled marriages and divorce within the church, particularly within the evangelical and fundamentalist churches. Joanne in her commented noted several divorces whereas Barb was not aware of any. I know little about this division, but I am aware of eight divorces within the division, and there are not many large congregations.

We need to ask ourselves why the evangelical and fundamentalist churches have the highest divorce rates, rates that are about 50% higher than those who admit that they are agnostics and atheists. Part of the issue lies with why so many believe Dr. Tom Ellis’s laughable claim that only 1 out of 39,000 who receive premarital counseling, attend church regularly and pray together experience divorce.

Such a claim assumes that those who are saved and led by the Spirit are virtually immune from divorce. Such thinking leads to the belief that if the marriage is in trouble, then there is something spiritually wrong with one or both of the marital partners. Faith in Christ and divorce are viewed as mutually exclusive. Hence the prescription is prayer, confession of sin and all will be well. This is dangerous thinking.

Such dangerous thinking sows the seeds of marital problems. Evangelicals and Fundamentalists live in the real world. They are not immune from temptation. They are not immune from interpersonal conflicts and tensions created by thoughtless actions of the other. To claim that marital tensions, arguments and other issues should not happen in a godly marriage brings a strong social pressure to put on a false face and deny that there unresolved problems within the marriage. Such denial creates an environment for a problem to fester and grow, to become attached to another unresolved problem and become magnified.

If one is part of a church that holds such dangerous thinking, is such an environment conducive to approaching the pastor to receive counseling? Of course not. Further, if a pastor and church holds that the divorce rate is as small as Ellis’ claims, why would a pastor prepare himself/herself for such counseling moments which would rarely occur during his/her professional career? Even if one felt that the divorce rate was less than 2%, such a pastor would not likely give much attention to marital counseling skills and knowledge sets.

Feeling awkward and fearful in acknowledging a problem brings alienation. In such an environment, most couples whose marriages are at risk would likely drift to the fringes of the church, or even leave the church as separation approaches.

Though evidence is to the contrary such individuals such as Ellis dogmatically hold that the biblical models of the family provide a protective marital bond that the secular models cannot own. They cannot accept that atheists have such a low divorce rate.

Why would atheists have a lower divorce rate than those claiming to be Christians? The studies have not examined the issue to any significant degree. Is it possible that those who stand outside the church have more honest and realistic expectations of their marital partner and their marriage as a whole. Is it possible that atheists may well see marriage as a partnership that involves active work, honest communication, mutual respect and affirmation, and are not as deeply offended when their partner offends them? Is it possible that lacking the “religious denial" baggage they are more freely admitting and addressing issues earlier, working out their problems and creating the foundation to forgive one another more freely without dismissing or dealing with their conflicts through the use of empty platitudes we too often find being tossed around in the church?

Saying and believing, "Just take it to the Lord in prayer" or "Surrender the matter into the Lord's hands and He will work it out," or "You just confess you sins and you will find peace", etc. tends to allow a couple to avoid dealing with a problem. Marriage demands ongoing work, open honest communication, respect and facing issues in a forthright and upright manner.

It is overdue for the conservative branch to open its eyes, to look at the data, to admit the truth of what is happening within the marriages conservative Christians, to move beyond empty platitudes, roll-up its sleeves and help families deal in meaningful ways with everyday life issues.

The Difference Faith Makes in the Divorce Rate

When I was in college, a confidential survey was conducted by a Christian grad students at the University of Kentucky as part his PhD. He was studying whether faith made a difference in moral conduct. The survey focusing upon conduct over the past year and was being conducted at three evangelical colleges and five secular colleges. The short questionnaire asked about sexual activity from petting to intercourse, academic cheating, and the consumption of alcohol and drugs.

The survey was conducted in the spring with the results tabulated in the summer. The college said that they were going to make announce the results in the fall. The following fall, no results were announced not because the surveys were not tabulated but because the results shocked the administration. They were expecting to see a significant difference in the conduct of their students, and those who claimed to be evangelical Christians versus the “secular students.” The difference existed somewhat with regard to alcohol and drugs, but those differences could be explained away as being the impact of the college’s rules and somewhat segregated life.

I learned later that they administration was stunned that their students reported being engaged in academic cheating at a higher level than students on the secular campus. Also they were disappointed that their students were just as active sexually as their peers at the public universities. It appeared that Christian faith was not making a moral difference in the lives of their students.

There is a popular slogan that says, "The family that prays together, stays together." It is widely reported within the evangelical church that the divorce rate amongst Christians who attend church regularly is lower than those who do not, and that within the church, Evangelicals have the lowest divorce rate. Dr. Tom Ellis, chairman of the Southern Baptist Convention’s Council on the Family as stated,"...born-again Christian couples who marry...in the church after having received premarital counseling...and attend church regularly and pray daily together..." experience only 1 divorce out of nearly 39,000 marriages -- or 0.00256 percent.

The figures quoted by Dr. Ellis appear to be impressive, but the figure is false. At the best his claim involves bold creative counting, such as the church that claims to have never had a member be divorce expelling people and withdrawing membership when the couple separate. Another shocking explanation is summarily and arrogantly dismissing that those who divorce were “not truly Christians" in the first place. At the worse, Dr. Ellis’ claim is a dishonest and bold fabrication used to hide what he knows as being true, that faith and regular attendance at church does not inoculate one from divorce, and that an argument could be made that it increases the likelihood of divorce.

In its survey on the subject the widely acclaimed evangelical Barna Research Group has found that the divorce rate within the church is higher than it is amongst atheists and agnostics. Further, Barna found that the divorce rate amongst Evangelicals to be higher than within any other segment of the church.

Evangelical and fundamentalists.... 34%
Baptists.... 29%
Mainline Protestants.... 25%
Mormons..... 24%
Catholics..... 21%
Lutherans.... 21%

Jews.... 30%
Atheists/Agnostics..... 21%

Other surveys have the divorce rate amongst “born again” Christians at 27% and those claiming to be Christians but not claiming to be “born again” as 24%.

Religion in America

Last night on the news it was reported that 15% of Americans do not believe or adhere to in any organized religion. During the discussion I found most three things to be most interesting:
1. That 76% of American adults claim they are Christians.
2. That two religion commentators said that most of those 15% are not atheists or agnostics.
3. That Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council, an evangelical group, claims that as the economy declines, more people will turn to faith.

Perkin’s statement is most interesting in that by implication he is suggesting that faith has more to do with warm fuzzies and a general sense of security in tough times than it does with true heart-felt convictions. Such a view is different than what I have understood as the evangelical definition of faith.

Church leaders like to grasp onto that 76% as an argument for claiming that America is a Christian nation. Though the Christian faith has influenced the direction of the nation, such a claim is doubtable, particularly more than ever. Church attendance is declining, and for those churches that are growing, the bulk of their growth is coming people who have been attending other churches. In total, fewer and fewer people are attending church each decade.

That 76% of American adults claim they are Christians is a clearly a cultural definition rather than a faith definition. Weekday mornings between 7 and 9:30 the roads are clogged with cars as about 60% the adult population is on the move during that period traveling to work. The one morning a week when the roads are nearly empty is Sunday morning. Less than a quarter of those who claim to be Christians attend church on a regular basis.

I it is interesting that the two religion guests, one evangelical and one Roman Catholic, argued that very few of the 15% who do not have a faith expression are agnostic or atheists. While in a sense they are right, if they were to open their eyes, they could not reasonably hold such a view. They are right in that few have intellectually concluded that God's exisitance can be proved or that there is no God. That said, functionally the vast majority of that 15% by claiming to have not faith or belief in the supernatural (or supranatural as some Christian apologists call it) are living their lives as agnostics/atheists.

Furthermore, a good number of that 76% who claim to be Christian, do so in name only. Many are cultural Christians in that it is their family background/heritage or that they acknowledge that they will be married and burried "in the church", and that Christian values of right and wrong have colored their values. As many of that 76% never darken a Church door even at Christmas, they too are living a life of unbelief. If a person really does not believe and lives out their life part from the church and its values, what does that make them functionally if not at the very least an agnostic.